The 2017 General Election
The freak landslide victory achieved by the SNP in the 2015 GE was a one off.
In view of this and the downward adjustment that would surely follow at the next GE I completed a voting analysis of the Scottish electorate and published it around 6 weeks before the election
My analysis indicated 22 seats would most likely be lost to the SNP.
I am aware of many interpretations, both negative and positive being bandied about the internet and in the right wing British press and the BBC and other television media outlets.
All are distinctly unfriendly to the cause of Scottish independence and their uttering should be judged in that context
Supporters of independence for Scotland should be guided by the information that follows:
The heads of the Tory and LibDem Unionist parties in Scotland agreed an election strategy which included sustained attacks on the credibility of the SNP government, concentrating on the character assassination of persons they perceived to be the guiding lights of the independence movement.
Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond were singled out for the complete treatment package aimed at destroying their credibility in the eyes of voters in Scotland.
In combination with the foregoing they created the “No Indy 2” movement which required every unionist activist to repetitiously write and or speak the phrase at every juncture.
The tactic is well used in the US and works creating negative feelings in the minds of those it is aimed at. In this case anyone who supported the cause of Scottish independence.
The final part of the strategy was to ensure a target number of seats would be taken away from the SNP at the time of the election by fair means or foul.
This necessitated tactical voting to ensure the seats selected would be assured and transferred to the Unionist cause
The 22 seats listed below were targeted many months before the election and a great deal of work was completed by activists softening up the constituencies.
Mission success was clear and unambiguous. Every seat would need to be won over to the unionists for the campaign to be declared a success.
Anything less than a full house would only serve to confirm that the independent movement in Scotland was a powerful medium and impossible to defeat.
The unionists failed to win all of the target seats.
Eight SNP candidates weathered the unionist storm in which everything but the kitchen sink was thrown at them.
The Scottish independence movement is live and well and with the added numbers of European immigrants to Scotland and the under eighteens the future is clear.
Scotland will be independent soon.
Electorate: 71749: Edinburgh West: Michelle Thomson MP :
Lost votes: 4388 – 6.12%
Result: Lib Gain: 10% switched from the SNP to other parties.
Electorate: 69982: East Renfrewshire: Kirsten Oswald MP:
Lost Votes: 4241 – 6.06%
Result: Tory Gain: Tactical voting: 7% Lab voters switched from Lab to Tory. And 9% switched from SNP to Tory.
Electorate: 66966: East Dunbartonshire: John Nicolson MP:
3977-5.94% Lib Gain 5339 78.8% 10% switched SNP to other parties.
65846: Edinburgh South: Ian Murray MP: 3579-5.44% (Labour) Lab Hold 15514 74.1% 11% switched SNP to Lab.
73445: West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: Stuart Blair Donaldson MP: 3961-5.40% Tory Gain 7949 71.2% Tactical voting 13% Lib to Tory. Plus 9% switched SNP to Tory.
80978: Edinburgh North & Leith: Deidre Brock MP: 4280-5.29% SNP Hold 1625 71.2% 7% SNP switched to Tory. An excellent hold.
66208: Paisley & Renfrewshire North: Gavin Newlands MP: 3158-4.77% SNP Hold 2613 69.1% 13% switched SNP to Tory. an excellent hold.
68875: Argyll & Bute: Brendan O’Hara MP: 3277-4.75% SNP Hold 1328 71.5% Tactical voting 10% Lib to Tory. Plus 8% switched SNP to Tory.
62003: North East Fife: Stephen Gethins MP: 2937-4.74% SNP Hold 2 71.3% 8% switched SNP to Tory. An excellent hold.
67236: Stirling: Steven Paterson MP: 3175-4.72% Tory Gain 148 74.3% Tactical voting 3.5% Lab to Tory. Plus 9% switched SNP to Tory.
77379: Ochil & South Perthshire: Ms Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh MP: 3645-4.71% Tory Gain 3359 70.6% Tactical voting 9% Lab to Tory. Plus 10% switched SNP to Tory.
79393: Gordon: Rt Hon Alex Salmond MP: 3711-4.68% Tory Gain 2607 68.4% Tactical voting 21% LibDem to Tory. Plus 10% switched SNP to Tory.
79481: East Lothian:George Kerevan MP: 3676-4.63% Lab Gain 3083 70.7% 5% voters switched SNP to Lab. Plus 7% switched SNP to Tory.
72178: Edinburgh South West: Joanna Cherry QC: 3283-4.55% SNP Hold 1097 69.4% 8% voters switched SNP to Tory. An excellent hold.
72447: Perth & North Perthshire: Pete Wishart MP: 3033-4.19% SNP Hold 21 71.8% 8% voters switched SNP to Tory. An excellent hold.
78037: Lanark & Hamilton East: Angela Crawley MP: 3272-4.19% SNP Hold 206 65.3% 16% voters switched SNP to Tory. An excellent hold.
68483: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale: Rt Hon David Mundell MP:2816-4.11% Tory Hold 9441 72.4% 8% voters switched SNP to Tory.
74179: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk: Calum Kerr MP: 3026-4.08% Tory Gain 11060 71.5% Tactical voting 14% LibDem to Tory. Plus 4% SNP to Tory.
86955: Linlithgow and East Falkirk, “mp”:”Martyn Day MP”,”signature_count”:3570-4.11% SNP Hold 2919 64.7% 16% voters switched SNP to Tory. An excellent hold.
68609: Banff & Buchan: Dr Eilidh Whiteford MP: 2772-4.04% Tory Gain 3693 61.6% 20% voters switched SNP to Tory.
71685: Moray, “mp”:”Rt Hon Angus Robertson MP”,”signature_count”:2995-4.18% Tory Gain 4159 67.4% 11% voters switched SNP to Tory.
68056: Aberdeen South, “mp”:”Callum McCaig MP”,”signature_count”:3618-4.65% Tory Gain 4752 68.5% Tactical voting 6% Lab to Tory. Plus 10% switched SNP to Tory.
4 thoughts on “Unionist Parties in Scotland Made Their Move and Blew It – Scottish Independence is Firmly on the Agenda – Ruthie the Moothie and Your fifth columnists You Have been Sussed”
Interesting article. There has obviously been gerrymandering going on.
I’m interested in Mike Weir’s constituency, Angus, where a 27 year old with NO political experience overturned a good constituency MP of 16 years standing. She had hundreds of huge field billboards and several posted (by Royal Mail) letters per household. How come?
Same all over. Tory battle plan to take out the head of SNP at Westminster. They succeeded in that . All those who stood up to Tories at Westminster including Roger Mullin taken out so no effective opposition.
They will do the same at Holyrood if given the chance.
They now need a couple of good street fighters to plan for a) the fight back and b) the renewed fight for independence.
I preferred Alex Salmond at Holyrood where he was able to keep Davidson et.al in their place Nicola is unable to do this effectively which is increasing the profile of Davidson and her cronies to the detriment of the SNP. I would move Nicola to Westminster (assuming a seat became available) and get Eck back .