caltonjock

Regardless of what is going on in the other parts of the UK, the General Election in Scotland is developing into a test of the political will of the electorate.

To the exclusion of all other factors voters will place their votes, either in support of the campaign for independence or conversely with any of the three Unionist parties.

In consequence the landslide victory achieved by the SNP in the last GE cannot realistically be achieved.

Early polling and previous figures gathered by myself suggest seats might change hands, the Tories being the main benefactors:

SNP activists will need to get out in force in the under-noted constituencies otherwise they might be lost.

Projected Marginal SNP (Too Close To Call)

71749: Edinburgh West: Michelle Thomson MP: 4388-6.12%: Maj 2015: 3210

GE: 2017: SNP 19309, Liberal 19180, Tory 10960, Labour 3836, Green 1500

65846: Edinburgh South: Ian Murray MP: 3579-5.44%: Maj 2015: 2637

GE: 2017: SNP 15249, Labour 14790, Tory 13311, Liberal 3500, Green 2500

73445: West Abdn & Kinc: S. B. Donaldson MP: 3961-5.40%: Maj 2015: 7033

GE: 2017: SNP 18275, Lib 16620, Tory 16000, Labour 1340, Green 1300

80978: Edinburgh North & Leith: Deidre Brock MP: 4280-5.29%: Maj 2015: 5597

GE: 2017: SNP 22216, Labour 14575, Tory 13992, Green 4081, Liberal 3498

66208: Paisley & Renfrew N: Gavin Newlands MP: 3158-4.77%: Maj 2015: 9076

GE: 2017: SNP 29136, Labour 14564, Tory 13240, Liberal 7944, Green 1240

68875: Argyll & Bute: Brendan O’Hara MP: 3277-4.75%: Maj 2015: 8473

GE: 2017: SNP 18936, Liberal 15510, Tory 10340, Labour 5170, Green 700

77379: Ochil & South Perth: T. Ahmed-Sheikh MP: 3645-4.71%: Maj GE: 2015:

GE: 2017:SNP 19922, Tory 18592, Labour 11620, Liberal 6400, Green 1500

79393: Gordon: Alex Salmond MP: 3711-4.68%: Maj 2015: 8687

GE: 2017: SNP 20757, Liberal 20300, Tory 11600, Labour 3800. Green 1500

79481: East Lothian:George Kerevan MP: 3676-4.63%: Maj 2015: 6803

GE: 2017: SNP 18172, Tory 18081, Labour 14725, Liberal 7068, Green 1800

72178: Edinburgh South West: Joanna Cherry QC: 3283-4.55%: Maj 2015: 8135

GE: 2017: SNP 17928, Tory 17680, Labour 8320, Liberal 6240, Green 2400

71685: Moray: Angus Robertson MP: 2995-4.18%: Maj 2015: Maj 2015: 9065

GE: 2017: SNP 20738, Tory 17820, Labour 3960, Liberal 5445, Green 1500

68609: Banff & Buchan: Dr Eilidh Whiteford MP: 2772-4.04%: Maj 2015: 14339

GE: 2017: SNP 26330, Tory 15640, Labour 2000, Liberal 2000

78037: Lanark & Hamilton E: Angela Crawley MP: 3272-4.19%: Maj 2015: 10100

GE 2017: SNP 25142, Tory 14196, Labour 10920, Liberal 4368

Seats Under Threat

69982: East Renfrewshire: Kirsten Oswald MP: 4241-6.06%: Maj 2015: 3718

GE: 2017: Tory 25900, SNP 24200, Labour 15400, Liberal 3500, Green 1000

66966: East Dunbartonshire: John Nicolson MP: 3977-5.94%: Maj 2015: 2167

GE: 2017: Liberal 21960, SNP 16629, Tory 11529, Labour 3294, Green 1500

62003: North East Fife: Stephen Gethins MP: 2937-4.74%: Maj 2015: 4344

GE: 2017: Liberal 18120, SNP 12050, Tory 9966, Labour 3624, Green 1500

67236: Stirling: Steven Paterson MP: 3175-4.72%: Maj 2015: 10480

GE: 2017: Tory 17850, SNP 17406, Labour 11550, Liberal 3638, Green 2000

68056: Aberdeen South: Callum McCaig MP: 3618-4.65%: Maj 2015: 7230

GE: 2017: Tory 16429, SNP 15395, Labour 9664, Lib 4832, Green 2000

72447: Perth & North Perthshire: Pete Wishart MP: 3033-4.19%: Maj 2015: 9641

GE: 2017: Tory 22806, SNP 20619, Labour 4000, Liberal 5430, Green 1500

68483: Dumfries, Clyde & Tweed, D Mundell MP:2816-4.11%: Maj 2015: 798:

GE: 2017: Tory 23400, SNP 21320, Labour 4160, Liberal 4160, Green 1500

74179: Berwick, Roxburgh, Selkirk: Calum Kerr MP: 3026-4.08%: Maj 2015: 328

GE: 2017: Tory 20862, SNP 18756, Liberal 13176, Labour 1098, Green 1000

Seats Tory 6, Liberals 2