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19 March 2015: Stunning survey shows Yes would win a new referendum while our poll also points to the SNP winning the bulk of Scotland’s 59 seats in May.

A majority of Scots now back independence just six months after the referendum No vote, according to a sensational new poll. The bombshell survey shows that a repeat vote on Scotland’s future would see the public narrowly back a split by 51 per cent to 49 per cent. The poll of more than 1000 Scots also found a growing appetite for another referendum on independence in the near future. And in more bad news for unionists, the SNP has increased its already commanding lead over Labour at Westminster – they’re now on course for an astonishing 53 of the 59 seats at May’s general election. The results underline the growing feeling that the constitutional question is far from settled despite the two-year debate on independence that culminated in last year’s historic vote. How would you vote if there was another referendum tomorrow asking Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes 45% No 43% Undecided 11% Rather Not Say 1%

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has already U-turned on her pre-referendum vow that the ballot was a “once in a generation” event. She now insists there should be another referendum whenever a majority of Scots want it. And according to polling firm Survation that day could come a lot quicker than some people think. The poll found 80 per cent want another referendum at some point in the future – but a majority now want it before 2025. However, the most explosive finding is that support for independence is now ahead. How will you vote in the General Election in May? SNP 47% Labour 26% Tories 16% Lib/Dems 4% Others 7%

It showed that 45 per cent of Scots would vote Yes if there was another referendum held tomorrow – the exact same percentage as backed indy on September 18. But only 43 per cent say they would vote No. The remaining 12 per cent are undecided or did not want to reveal how they would vote. If the don’t knows are excluded you would be left with a 51 per cent Yes to 49 per cent No referendum result. Should Scotland be an independent country? (Excluding Don’t Knows). Yes 51% No 49%

In fact, it revealed the SNP have actually increased their massive lead in the polls over Labour. Forty-seven per cent of Scots now plan to vote SNP on May 7, up two points from our last poll in February. Support for Labour fell two points to 26 per cent. The Tories rose one point to 16 per cent and the Lib Dems dropped another point to a humiliating four per cent. If our results were repeated in the actual vote, the SNP would win 53 seats and Labour just FIVE. The Lib Dems would lose all but one of their 11 Scots MPs and the Tories would be entirely wiped out in Scotland.

SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson said: “This is another welcome poll – it shows that support to give Scotland a strong voice at Westminster by returning a team of SNP MPs to stand up for Scottish interests remains very high. “By contrast, Labour continue to pay the price for being on the same side of so many arguments as the Tories, including their joint commitment to imposing even more spending cuts. “We take nothing for granted and will work extremely hard to win people’s trust on May 7 so that we can deliver jobs and growth in place of Westminster cuts, power for Scotland and the non-renewal of useless and expensive Trident nuclear weapons.”

Our poll also looked ahead to the 2016 Holyrood elections and put the SNP on an incredible 50 per cent support for the constituency vote compared with Labour’s 26 per cent. On the regional list vote the SNP are on 39 per cent compared with Labour’s 23 per cent. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-bombshell-daily-record-poll-5366657

8 April 2015: David Cameron rules out second independence referendum

David Cameron has dramatically ruled out a second independence referendum under the Tories – even if the SNP wins the 2016 Scottish election. The Conservative leader said he believed the independence question was “settled for a generation” and emphatically ruled out an early re-run of the vote. The Prime Minister made clear he was not envisaging another campaign to keep the Union together under his watch. He told The House magazine, a Westminster journal: “I believe it’s settled. I quote Alex Salmond, ‘settled for a generation, possibly for a lifetime’, is what he said. And I’m sticking with that.”

A second referendum would require another Section 30 order giving time-limited powers to Holyrood to stage the vote. But Cameron made it clear that he does not contemplate a Tory-led government agreeing to the move, even if the SNP win a majority at Holyrood in 2016. “I think there was a very big debate in Scotland , a very big moment, a very big turnout. But it was pretty decisive, a ten point margin is pretty decisive,” he said. Asked what his position would be if the SNP win the Holyrood elections with a manifesto commitment to a second referendum, Cameron replied: “That issue is settled.”

Angus Robertson, the SNP’s General Election Campaign Director, said “As the First Minister has made clear, It is the people of Scotland – not David Cameron or any other politician – who will decide when any future referendum on independence might be.” http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-rules-out-second-5481128#rlabs=59

Lord Smith