The silence from the Westminster MP’s is deafening -this explains why

26 Sep 2015: The SNP run riot at Westminster

Standing on chairs in Parliament’s Sports and Social bar, a band of portly gentlemen are bellowing out Scottish folk songs.

A young barmaid, only in her early twenties yet a seasoned veteran when it comes to turfing out unruly Westminster soaks, approaches a new SNP MP and politely asks him to pack it in.

Words are exchanged.

Multiple witnesses allege a drunken ‘f— you’ is uttered.

Defeated, the barmaid retreats behind the bar to mocking male laughter.

So upset is she by the incident, she will leave her job a few weeks later.

A Labour wag reaches for his coat and sighs “They’re only just getting started.”

The conquering horde of Scots Nats have come to town and they are making themselves heard.

SW1 certainly expected the worst from the new SNP cohort.

As the Glasgow East MP Natalie McGarry puts it, “They thought we would come down waving flags, with our faces painted blue and white.”

Yet those preconceptions were not without substance.

An extraordinary, never-before-seen document written by disgruntled SNP aides reveals that even the party’s own employees have been horrified by their MPs’ behaviour for a while.

In their own staff’s words, this new Westminster group are described as “complete arseholes”

To find out whether the new intake are living up to their reputation, Westminster’s watering holes are the only place to begin.

The Sports and Social is traditionally a Labour haunt, earning it the nickname ‘Sports and Socialist’.

Just two weeks after polling day, to quote one Blairite boozehound, it had been ‘colonised’ by the Scots.

Such are their imperial ambitions, SNP MPs confirm with almost embarrassed smiles their plans to have it officially renamed the ‘Rabbie Burns Bar’.

At kicking-out time, it’s over to the infamous Strangers’ Bar.

A taxpayer-subsidised tot of Scotch here is just £2.55, yet despite the SNP’s arrival, the managers have not had cause to double their orders.

The man at the bar claims half jokingly “‘Most of them only drink champagne.”

His theory is that the £67,000-a-year MP’s salary is a considerable pay rise for many of his new punters, and that they are enjoying their newfound riches in style.

This is an allegation heartily rebuffed by ‘real ale man’ and Midlothian MP Owen Thompson, who is having beer from his local Stewart brewery shipped in and put on tap.

Bubbly or ale in hand, the terrace is a place where MPs forget the adversarial nature of the chamber and, their inhibitions loosened, have a good gossip with politicians from other tribes.

Not so the Nats, of whom one rival party hand complains they, “all stand together in a huddle by themselves, not talking to anyone else.”

A case of dour Scots?

Natalie McGarry insists she has had “a good bit of conversation” with “amenable” Labour colleagues, but that while, “some Tory MPs are unfailingly polite, some of them are stuck up their own bahookies.”

I barely have time to ask how one might spell that, before she is telling me what happens when the SNP stick to non-alcoholic beverages.

McGarry recalls, “a cabinet minister came up to us and said fruit juice? I would have thought you Scots would have been on the booze.”

In an example of Westminster Jockophobia, she claims the minister’s aide then turned to her boss and sneered, “Now they’re here we’ll have to start nailing things down.”

There are eight new SNP MPs under 30, and the younger generation have quickly taken over Westminster’s premier 3 a.m. dive, the Players Bar in the Charing Cross Theatre.

When 20-year-old Mhairi Black is not wowing the House with her eloquence, she is impressing revellers on the dance floor.

A fellow clubber reports, “She was a bit reserved early on, but that’s understandable.

She was dancing away with the rest of us by the end of the night.”

Black’s colleague Stuart Donaldson, the 23-year old MP for West Aberdeenshire, has meanwhile undergone something of a transformation.

An admiring colleague laughs and says, “He was the most socially awkward person here when he first turned up.

Now you never see him without his harem of attractive blonde girls.”

He would not be the first Honourable Member to find the trappings of power have improved his success with women, but he might be one of the youngest.

And after a night out, where do the SNP regiment go to lay their weary heads?

The highly rated Argyll and Bute MP Brendan O’Hara warns, with a hint of irony, “the last thing you want is folk swanning around Belgravia on the taxpayer.

O’Hara himself is taking advantage of gentrification, “I’m down in Elephant and Castle. I lived in London in the 1990s and it had an awful reputation. Someone said to me, “Look at Elephant and Castle,” and I thought, “Oh I don’t think so.” But what a transformation! What you could get in Glasgow for your IPSA [expenses] allowance here, well you could get anything you want. It’s remarkable.”

Ginger-bearded Owen Thompson is a Midlothian man at the weekend, but during the week he lives in Kensington.

He tells me of his initial shock at being quoted a price of £350 a week for a high-end property in west London, but was chuffed to haggle £25 off the final price: “Doing my bit for the taxpayer.”

Early hopes for flat shares between laddish MPs petered out, leaving much of the new contingent dotted around Vauxhall and Kennington.

O’hara explains, “almost everyone I know lives within walking distance of Parliament.”

A Tory source recounts recently bumping into Stuart Hosie, the SNP deputy leader and Westminster veteran outside the Scot’s ultra-luxury apartment at Great Minster House, where a flat can fetch up to £6 million. “Even I can’t afford to live here,” exclaimed the envious Tory, to which Hosie protested: “It’s a shoebox!”

Other than the cosy living arrangements, what has been the biggest surprise?

Gavin Newlands, MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire North gushes about the ‘good value’ of the subsidised Commons cafeteria.

Outside of the Parliamentary estate, the Nats have been a little more adventurous.

Natalie McGarry is outed by colleagues as the organiser of an SNP team dinner at the upmarket Cinnamon Kitchen in the heart of the City.

The sister restaurant of Westminster’s opulent Cinnamon Club, the Kitchen’s extensive menu offers spiced red deer for £29 and Pinot Noir at £100 a bottle.

Forty-five out of the 56 SNP MPs attended.

O’hara admits,”this isn’t a change of job, it’s a change of life,” and for him the most difficult adjustment has been the Palace of Westminster itself. He says. “Labyrinth doesn’t begin to describe it I find myself running up staircases and wandering around for hours thinking, How do I get back? I’d love to get into the mind of the architect.”

For McGarry, the change in climate has caused more serious concerns, “I woke up one morning and I had massive lumps all over me! I went into a tailspin thinking I had bed bugs, so I went to the nurse. She just scoffed at me.”

Had moving 400 miles nearer to the equator left her susceptible to tropical diseases? The Nats were expecting plenty of bite south of the border, but they had not bargained for mosquitoes.

Watching them sip champagne on the Commons terrace and hearing about their fine dining and luxurious flats, one cannot help but feel the SNP’s new intake are already becoming the very metropolitan elite they claim to despise.

Owen Thomson admits, “there is a real danger with that. It is absolutely in your face all the time. I hope we’re not showing we’re all getting caught up in the establishment.”

McGarry cautions, “You could get into bad habits. I think people could get swept into the Westminster state of mind. It is “not healthy” to ‘socialise too much.”

O’Hara disagrees, insisting, “it’s really important that we don’t go around as a tribe and that we get to know a lot of people down here.”

2015 Article published in the “Observer”


This will puncture the myth that Murrell was a strategic genius

Jan 2017: Use of Gathered Data – Analysis of Petition Outcome

I compiled an analysis using information available to the public and produced a predictive 2017 election outcome.

Electorate totals were included and a percentage signatory total was established for each constituency. From that I used the mean figure of 3.75% to forward project the outcome of an Independence referendum.

The figures suggested that from an electorate of 4,021,203 the outcome of another referendum would result in a: 48.00% “Yes” vote in favour of independence with 52.00% preferring to remain with the Union. 

This was important information which if used wisely would allow effective forward planning electioneering strategy.

As expected Edinburgh, Aberdeen, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire recorded higher than average figures favouring remaining with the Union.

SNP's Mr Invisible may be taking the flak from dissidents, but critics are  also targeting his wife

Jan 2017 General Election Calton Jock forecast 

The General Election in Scotland will not be a re-run of the 2015 General Election and the landslide victory achieved by the SNP cannot realistically be achieved.

My analysis suggests 25 seats might be lost to the Tory Party.

Significant SNP financial resources and additional teams of activists will need to be deployed in force in the under-noted constituencies otherwise they may be lost.

This group of seats are marginals – risk decreases as the % number drops:

71749: Edinburgh West, Michelle Thomson MP : 4388-6.12% Lost

69982: East Renfrewshire, Kirsten Oswald MP: 4241-6.06% Lost

66966: East Dunbartonshire, John Nicolson MP: 3977-5.94% Lost

73445: West Abdn, Stuart Blair Donaldson MP: 3961-5.40% Lost

80978: Edinburgh North & Leith, Deidre Brock MP: 4280-5.29% Held

66208: Paisley & Renfrew, Gavin Newlands MP: 3158-4.77% Held

68875: Argyll & Bute, Brendan O’Hara MP: 3277-4.75% Held

62003: North East Fife, Stephen Gethins MP: 2937-4.74% Held

67236: Stirling, Steven Paterson MP: 3175-4.72% Lost

77379: Ochil & Perth, Tasmina-A-Sheikh MP: 3645-4.71% Lost

79393: Gordon, Rt. Hon Alex Salmond MP: 3711-4.68% Lost

68056: Aberdeen South, Callum McCaig MP: 3618-4.65% Lost

79481: East Lothian, George Kerevan MP: 3676-4.63% Lost

72178: Edinburgh S-West, Joanna Cherry QC: 3283-4.55% ) Held

72447: Perth & N-Perthshire, Pete Wishart MP: 3033-4.19% Held

71685: Moray, Rt. Hon Angus Robertson MP: 2995-4.18% Lost

78037: Lanark & Hamilton-E, Angela Crawley MP: 3272-4.19% Held

74179: Berwick, Roxburgh, Selkirk: Calum Kerr MP: 3026-4.08% Lost

86955: Linlithgow, East Falkirk, Martyn Day MP:3570-4.11% Held

68609: Banff & Buchan, Dr Eilidh Whiteford MP: 2772-4.04% Lost

73445: W. Abdn,  Stuart-B-Donaldson MP: 3961-5.40% Lost

71685: Moray, Rt. Hon Angus Robertson MP: 2995-4.18% Lost

68056: Aberdeen South, Callum McCaig MP: 3618-4.65% Lost

Revealed: The secretive SNP chieftains helping Alex Salmond break up the  Union | Daily Mail Online

The 2017 General Election and the resurgence of the Tory Party in Scotland

The 2017 General Election in Scotland first exposed Scottish voters to “data mining”. A new form of politics imported from the USA, providing tools and profiling information allowing Tory candidates to communicate personally with their prospective constituents.

The benefits were astounding. The Tories gained a stunning result, increasing their MP’s from 1 to 13 in total.

Pollsters were flabbergasted at the turnaround in the voting since the SNP appeared to be invulnerable.

But Tory candidates had been well briefed about the individual targets within their constituencies. The new voting strategy used predictive data models which identified, engaged and persuaded swing voters to turnout.

This was achieved through the use of internet, phone and personal surveys combined with many other data sets, created by teams of contracted data scientists, psychologists and political consultants allowing the campaign to map the Scottish electorate based on ideology, demographics, religious beliefs, strongly held opinions on key issues e.g. Independence, the Orange Lodge, Celtic, Rangers, The SNP and or political personalities.

The information gathered provided Tory campaign strategists with a predictive analysis based on thousands of data points on just about every voter in Scotland.

From that teams of political consultants and psychologists, hired by the Party directed the campaign and candidates on what and how to say it to selected groups of voters.

Other voter targeting, included use of Facebook adverts, one to one scripted phone calls and provision of the content of messages for door-to-door canvassers ensuring consistent communication with voters on any issue.

What won the day for the Tory party in 2017 was that they utilised “data mining” to gain a comprehensive understanding of the Scottish electorate and then used every communication aid available facilitating discussions with voters about matters important to them as individuals.

Throughout the campaign the Tory tactic was to constantly broadcast the “no new referendum” message in the “no” constituencies stressing the major difference between the Tory and any other candidates firmly imprinting this in the electorate’s minds.

In contrast the SNP campaign lacked inspiration. It was poorly directed (Murrell deliberately starved “at risk” constituencies of financial and other resources) and failed to get the SNP voters out.

Information is power and the incompetent SNP strategist, Peter Murrell, was outwitted by the Tory Party.

Had he been the chief strategist of any political party other than the SNP he would have been given his marching orders.

Incredulously the First Minister, (his wife) awarded him a massive pay rise and an extended contract.