10 Jun 2017: Petra commented:
“Boris or Jack? I have no idea who you are but suffice to say you must be working your butt off in promoting the Independence cause. The level of your depth of knowledge, historical and otherwise, and obvious talent for carrying out investigations and research is second to none. I follow your articles (every one – plus save them all) and they are truly amazing. More than anything I use a great deal of what you have to say online and on the doorstep to great effect. Keep up the good work. It’s people like you and Stuart Campbell who are making a massive difference and we won’t forget it when we get our Independence. Maybe then I’ll find out if you are Boris or Jack, LOL. Best of wishes from me and more than anything thanks a million.”
10 Jun 2017: Barry Watson commented:
“A true voice for Scotland jock, your knowledge is an inspiration to read, not just the divisive one liners that all too often get spouted from the keyboards of some “yessers”. You should be heard on a bigger stage in my opinion, are you in contact with serving MSP’s? Maybe someone could get you time with the first minister’s team, I’m sure they could learn even a little. Keep up the good work!”
12 Jun 2017: Andrew Smith commented:
“I share all your blogs on Facebook, and have noticed a few posters on ‘wings’ sharing them, I think you reach more people than you imagine.
But, like you say, the SNP leadership should be taking more on board the material served up by yourself and several other excellent sites, let’s face it, you’re all doing them a great service at no cost to party funds!”
12 Jun 2017: Caltonjock replied:
“Thank you for the kind words. I have been active for around three and a half years now and have clocked up 654,000 hits, to date. I know Wings attracts many more people but it is aimed at a different audience. I prefer to gather facts supported by evidence so that the information can be passed on with confidence. I often results in long articles but careful reading aids understanding of complex issues. I can only keep working away in the hope that someone near the top of the SNP tree recognises my efforts and gets the information to the right places.”
15 March 2017: Petition against a second Scottish independence referendum
A petition stating;
” A second Scottish Independence referendum should not be allowed to happen” has reached 123,000 signatures.
It stated: “We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost. As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely.
The majority of Scottish voters wish to remain in the British union, despite Nicola Sturgeon’s latest demands for a Scottish referendum, according to the latest polling from YouGov.
Some 57 per cent of Scots would vote No in an independence referendum, according to the poll, although younger people aged 18-24 were overwhelmingly in favour of independence.
The petition, on the Government’s official website is growing daily and is well in excess of the 100,000 signature threshold required for a debate on the issue at Westminster.
Ruth Davidson’s Media Manipulation Team In Action
The passage of time might reveal that the petition was a “spoiler” prepared and submitted to the internet social media by Ruth Davidson’s recently appointed high profile media manipulation team headed by Gordon Hector.
But fair play the ploy worked since it succeeded in raising the public profile of the possibility of another Independence referendum, which (at the time) had not been given mention by anyone other than Ruth Davidson.
The bellicose behaviour of Ruth Davidson at First Ministers questions, in the period after publication of Mundell’s pronouncement gave impetus to this review and analysis of information arising from the petition.
Methodology – Analysis of Petition Figure’s
Information was sourced from official lists and records providing numbers of acceptable signatories by Scottish Constituency.
Electorate totals were included and a percentage signatory total was established for each constituency.
From that the mean figure of 3.75% was used to forward project the outcome of an Independence referendum, should one be held after Brexit.
The figures suggest that from an electorate of 4,021,203 the outcome of another referendum would result in a: 48.00% “Yes” vote in favour of independence with 52.00% preferring to remain with the Union.
The information would be best used to forward plan strategy.
Edinburgh, Aberdeen, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire recorded higher than average figures favouring remaining with the Union.
Others appear to be less dogmatic which is encouraging.
The 2017 General Election
The landslide victory achieved by the SNP in the last GE cannot realistically be achieved. My analysis suggests 23 seats might change hands with the Tory Party being the main benefactor: The SNP campaign management teams will need devote additional resources to the marginals to be sure of a maximum turnout of supporters otherwise many of the under-noted constituencies will be lost.
This group of seats are marginals – The risk of loss decreases as the % number drops
71749: Edinburgh W., Michelle Thomson: 4388-6.12% Lib Gain
69982: E. Renfrewshire, Kirsten Oswald: 4241-6.06% Tory Gain
66966: E. Dunbartonshire, John Nicolson: 3977-5.94% Lib Gain
65846: Edinburgh S., Ian Murray: 3579-5.44% (Labour) Lab Hold
73445: West Abdn, Stuart Donaldson: 3961-5.40% Tory Gain
80978: Edinburgh N. & Leith, Deidre Brock MP: 4280-5.29% SNP Hold
66208: Paisley & Renfrew N., Gavin Newlands: 3158-4.77% SNP Hold
68875: Argyll & Bute, Brendan O’Hara: 3277-4.75% SNP Hold
62003: N. E. Fife, Stephen Gethins: 2937-4.74% SNP Hold
67236: Stirling, Steven Paterson: 3175-4.72% Tory Gain
77379: Ochil, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh: 3645-4.71% Tory Gain
79393: Gordon: Rt Hon Alex Salmond: 3711-4.68% Tory Gain
68056: Aberdeen South: Callum McCaig: 3618-4.65% Tory Gain
79481: East Lothian, George Kerevan: 3676-4.63% Lab Gain
72178: Edinburgh South West, Joanna Cherry: 3283-4.55% SNP Hold
72447: Perth & North, Pete Wishart MP: 3033-4.19% SNP Hold
71685: Moray, Angus Robertson: 2995-4.18% Tory Gain
78037: Lanark & Hamilton E, Angela Crawley: 3272-4.19% SNP Hold
68483: Dumfriesshire, David Mundell: 2816-4.11% Tory Hold
74179: Berwickshire, Calum Kerr: 3026-4.08% Tory Gain
86955: Linlithgow & East Falkirk, Martyn Day: 3570-4.11% SNP Hold
68609: Banff & Buchan, Dr Eilidh Whiteford: 2772-4.04% Tory Gain
73445: W. Abdn, Stuart Donaldson: 3961-5.40% Tory Gain
caltonjock 