The biggest study yet of how Scotland made its historic decision on September 18 has found that the votes of people born outside Scotland were crucial to the result.
While 52.7 per cent of native-born Scots voted Yes, a massive 72.1 per cent of voters from England, Wales or Northern Ireland backed the Union.
There were more than 420,000 Britons from elsewhere in the UK living in Scotland when the last census was taken.
And if they cast their ballots in line with the findings of the Edinburgh University study,
more than 300,000 of them will have voted No.
That’s a significant number in a contest that ended with 2,001,926 votes for No and 1,617,989 for Yes.
Voters born outside the UK also rejected independence, with 57.1 per cent voting No.
SNP MSP Christian Allard, who was himself born in France, said: “Scotland is the country of everyone who lives here, regardless of where they were born, and we take decisions on our future together.
“The diversity of Scotland’s population is a matter for celebration.
“While we were disappointed with the result of the referendum, this study shows that a
clear legacy has been greater political involvement, particularly among young people.
“And that is something to be proud of.”
Political scientist Professor Ailsa Henderson, who wrote the study, told the Record it showed the importance of “Britishness” among voters born elsewhere in the UK in deciding the result.
She said: “Scottish-born people were more likely to vote Yes and those born outside Scotland were more likely to vote No.
“But the least sympathetic to Yes were the people born in the UK, but outside Scotland.
“We think they are more likely to feel British. They are more likely to feel a continued tie to the UK as a whole – because that’s where they are from.”
Ailsa said it was different for voters who originally came from outside the UK.
She explained: “They have made a conscious decision to move to the UK, and the part of the UK they have chosen to move to is Scotland.”
Ailsa said the trend she found was similar to those seen in other independence votes in places such as Quebec in Canada.
The study, which recorded the attitudes of several thousand voters in a series of surveys, also confirmed that women and older people were more likely to vote No while men and the young were more in favour of Yes.
Researchers found that 56.6 per cent of women voted No while 53.2 per cent of men voted Yes.
he divide was even wider when it came to age. More than 62 per cent of voters aged 16 to 19 backed independence.
The Yes side also had a majority among voters aged 20 to 24, 25 to 29 and 30-39, while voters aged 40 to 49 were split almost exactly down the middle.
But 50 to 59-year-olds, 60 to 69-year-olds and voters aged 70 or older were all in the No camp, with the pro-Union majority getting bigger the older they were.
How the electorate voted (by age)
Nearly two thirds of 70-something Scots voted No.
Wealth and social status also played their part in deciding how the nation voted.
Yes had majorities among people who classed themselves as working class, people at the bottom of the earnings scale and people in rented social housing.
By contrast, the highest earners, home owners and people who described themselves as middle class were more likely to vote No.
Ailsa also found a “stark difference” between the voting patterns of protestants at Catholics, with Catholic voters far more likely to be Yes supporters.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-figures-revealed-majority-5408163
The 2014 Referendum
In the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum the voter list included anyone over the age of 16, entered on the current electoral roll, whose place of residence was in Scotland, regardless of nationality. The usual caveats about Service personnel also applied.
Voter turnout was 84.59%. The result: Yes, 1,617,989, 44.70%. No, 2,001,926, 55.30%
There is an acceptance within Scotland that in the referendum a majority of the 240,000 EU and Non EU Immigrant voters and many voters of Scottish birth and residence had been persuaded to vote “No” frightened into submission by an incessant campaign of disinformation orchestrated by the UK Civil Service, Westminster politicians, the UK government and opposition Parties and their organs of abuse, the BBC and all other media outlets serving Scotland.
Indeed after the referendum the bodies before mentioned “crowed from the rooftops” fighting each other for media space each claiming their disinformation output had been the most influential in gaining the “No” vote.
The award should go to the Civil Service anti-independence team working out of Downing Street under the guidance of Sir Jeremy Heywood, Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service …
790,000 postal voting forms were issued, completed and returned within the notified time period.
But the novel voting procedure, (heavily promoted by the governing authority) was sullied when, just after voting closed, Ruth Davidson and other influential supporters of the “No” campaign boasted they had known before 18 September 2014 that postal votes indicated a win for their campaign.
An incredible claim since the public had witnessed sealed postal votes being added to the other votes to be counted in at the counting stations.
There was a police investigation into the matter but the findings were never notified to the Scottish public who are still waiting for answers.
By result many Scot’s believed the outcome of the referendum had been fixed in favour of the “No” campaign.
Political Events 2015
Scottish voters would not be denied their say and public reaction towards the outcome of the referendum was clear and decisive six months after when, in the 2015 general election the Scottish National Party (SNP) won all but 3 of the 59 seats in Scotland in an unprecedented landslide.
The three seats which went to parties other than the SNP were held by very small majorities and local circumstances applied.
In winning by such a margin the SNP became the first political party in the UK, in sixty years to win 50% of the Scottish vote.
The mandate given to the SNP confirmed a majority of Scot’s wished to be independent and had the leaders of the Party the courage they would have advised Westminster that Scotland would be withdrawing from the 1707, Treaty of Union, quoting the political circumstances that had resulted in its signature, that a small majority of officers of parliament in Scotland had voted in 1707 in favour of the treaty.
This being a settled precedence the ruling would apply since the Scottish political system had returned a majority of MP’s in favour of abandoning the Treaty
But they decided to abide by the rules set out by Westminster and went off to England, bagpipes playing, photo opportunities galore and committed political “hari Kari” on national television.
The Westminster Debacle – 2015 – 2017
To say they were mocked would be an understatement. The corrupt Westminster system brutally ridiculed then destroyed the SNP.
At every turn the English dominated House of Commons imposed its will over the Scottish opposition.
The one single claim to fame by the SNP at Westminster was the acceptance of a one day motion removing VAT from ladies sanitary towels.
Scottish Parliament Election – 2016
The failure of the SNP at Westminster influenced the outcome of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election in which the party in which the SNP won a third term in government but failed to secure an overall majority.
In the election the Scottish Labour Party vote collapsed, to the benefit of the Scottish Conservative Party which increased their number of MSPs, overtaking Labour as the largest opposition party.
The Brexit Referendum – 2016
Just one month later, yet again, the Scottish public confirmed their wish to be independent of Westminster when at the 2016 EU referendum they voted 62.0% to remain with the EU.
But, as before Scotland’s wishes were consumed by English voters and their decision to leave the EU.
Intention to withdraw from the Treaty of European Union was notified to the EU in March 2017.
General Election – 2017
From the beginning of 2017, facing growing opposition to Brexit, the Tory Government decided to “cut and run” and called a snap General Election on 7 May 2017.
The expectation, if polls were to be believed, guaranteed the Tory Party a working majority at Westminster.
But, from an opening 20-point lead, the Tory’s lead diminished in the final weeks of the campaign.
In a result that stunned Westminster, the Tory party enjoyed a net loss of 13 seats, while Labour made a net gain of 30 seats.
Other parties performed badly as England returned to the much discredited “ping-pong” two party voting patterns of the past.
In Scotland, the election resulted in the SNP remaining the largest party, retaining 35 of the 56 seats It had won two years before.
The Scottish Tory Party won 13 seats while Labour and the Liberal Democrats took 7 and 4 seats respectively.
The result provided ammunition for the opposition Parties which they duly used in a sustained “fear” campaign against the SNP, orchestrated by the Red Tory Alliance claiming Scot’s had lost their appetite for independence.
The SNP hierarchy responded by abandoning a fundraiser for a possible referendum sometime after the conclusion of the 2 year Brexit negotiation period at the end of March 2019.
Scottish Independence Referendum – Post Brexit – 2019
Looking forward to the post Brexit period it is entirely possible that Scottish politicians will seek to hold another referendum on Scotland’s independence.
It is imperative that lessons are learned from the much discredited 2014 referendum and events since and changes applied.
Voting qualification should be restricted to people, of Scottish birth, aged 16 and over and resident in Scotland.
Usual caveats to be applied in the case of service personnel. Postal voting disallowed.
Voters should be required to cast their votes at polling stations.
Voting by proxy to be permitted, birth certificates or other form of acceptable proof of identity to be produced at the time of placing a vote.
Adoption of the foregoing as policy would provide an opportunity for Scot’s and only Scot’s to express their wish for the future of their country.
26 Mar 2015: The reason voting should be confined to home born Scots resident in Scotland at the next referendum
An extensive study of how Scotland made its historic decision on 18 September 2014 found that the votes of people born outside Scotland were crucial to the result.
While 52.7 per cent of native-born Scots voted “Yes”, a massive 72.1 per cent of voters from England, Wales or Northern Ireland backed the Union.
There were more than 420,000 Britons from elsewhere in the UK living in Scotland when the last census was taken and casting their ballots in line with the findings of the study, more than 300,000 will have voted “No”.
That’s a significant number in a contest that ended with 2,001,926 votes for “No” and 1,617,989 for “Yes.”
EU and other voters born outside the UK also rejected independence, with 57.1 per cent voting “No.”
The political analyst who write the report said the findings showed the importance of “Britishness” among voters born elsewhere in the UK in deciding the result.
She said: “Scottish-born people were more likely to vote Yes and those born outside Scotland were more likely to vote No.
“But the least sympathetic to “Yes” were the people born in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales and any other areas within the UK but outside Scotland.
“They are more likely to feel British and prefer a continued tie to the UK as a whole – because that’s where they are from.”
“There is a difference in voters who originally came from outside the UK, who had made a conscious decision to move to the UK, and the part of the UK they choose to move to was Scotland.”
Wealth and social status also played their part in deciding how the nation voted.
“Yes” had majorities among people who classed themselves as working class, people at the bottom of the earnings scale and people in rented social housing.
By contrast, the highest earners, home owners and people who described themselves as middle class were more likely to vote “No.”
There was also a “stark difference” between the voting patterns of protestants and Catholics, with Catholic voters far more likely to be “Yes” supporters. (The Daily Record)
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