2017 General Election – Out Gunned by the Tory and Unionist Party – The SNP Campaign Planners Are In Need Of A Firm Kick Up the Jacksie








Devolved Government in Scotland

The 1999 introduction of a Scottish parliament, with devolved powers (forced on the UK government by the EC) should have been a game changer.

For the first time in 300 years Scots had a forum allowing discussion of matters local to Scotland over which their elected representatives would be able to bring about change.

But the established political parties simply rubber stamped the wishes of the Westminster parliament on the electorate.

The Labour and Liberal Democratic coalition government, (elected to office in 1999 at the start of the new parliament) proved to be incompetent at all levels of government and voters gave their support to the Scottish National Party (SNP) who, (with the allowance of operating as a minority government) provided progressive, efficient and enlightened government.

In 2010 the SNP were rewarded for their achievements gaining a stunning victory returning to government with an overall majority (turning the Westminster gerrymandered electoral system on its head).

This period of government was also very successful, even when confronted with the implementation of potentially destructive financial austerity measures brought about by failed Westminster politics.

The party was rewarded with a return to government in 2015.






The Scottish Voter

In the period up to 2005 the majority of voters in Scotland voted as their family and neighbours did.

Voting was largely tribal and class driven.

Workers backed Labour whilst the rural communities, white collar workers and upper classes supported the Tory party.

But the impact of the Scottish Parliament, Illegal wars in Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. And the rapid expansion of the internet challenged the old ways and political party’s experienced the impact of declining voter bases as vast amounts of new information, previously denied the public became wide spread through internet driven social networking.

From 2014 enlightened Scots became increasingly more independent thinking and a new class of voter was born.

One which demanded from politicians information and policies relevant to their individual needs. To date only one party in Scotland responded. The Tory Party.






The 2017 General Election and the Tories

The 2017 General Election in Scotland exposed Scottish voters to “data mining” a new form of politics providing tools and profiling information allowing Conservative candidates to communicate personally with their prospective constituents.

The benefits were astounding. The Tories gained a stunning result, increasing their MP’s from 1 to 13 in total.

Pollsters were flabbergasted at the turnround in the voting since the SNP appeared to be invulnerable.

But Tory candidates had been well briefed about the individual targets within their constituencies.

It was a voting strategy, new to UK politics which, using predictive data models identified, engaged and persuaded voters to turnout.

This was achieved through the use of internet, phone and personal surveys combined with many other data sets, created by teams of contracted data scientists, psychologists and political consultants allowing the campaign to map the Scottish electorate based on ideology, demographics, religious beliefs, strongly held opinions on key issues e.g. Independence, The Orange Lodge, Celtic, Rangers, The SNP and or political personalities.

The information gathered provided Tory campaign strategists with a predictive analysis based on thousands of data points on just about every voter in Scotland.

From that teams of political consultants and psychologists, hired by the Party directed the campaign and candidates on what and how to say it to selected groups of voters.

Other voter targeting, included use of Facebook adverts, one to one scripted phone calls and provision of the content of messages for door-to-door canvassers ensuring consistent communication with voters on any issue.

What won the day for the Tory party in 2017 was that they utilised “data mining” to gain a comprehensive understanding of the Scottish electorate and then used every communication aid available facilitating discussions with voters about matters important to them as individuals.

Throughout the campaign the Tory tactic was to constantly broadcast the “no new referendum” message stressing that this was an important major difference between the Tory and any other candidates firmly imprinting this in the electorate’s minds.

In contrast the SNP campaign was directed at the Scottish electorate as an entity and failed to inspire those voters it needed to for success.

Information is power.






Personal data on Facebook

The “MyPersonality” app was launched in 2007.

In excess of six million people have completed the questionnaire, nearly half of them allowing psychometrics centres to access their Facebook profiles as they did so.

Once granted the user allows unfettered access and algorithms trawl through likes and posts training statistical models that use “digital footprints” to predict personality types.

Scholars are then allowed to dip into that pool of anonymized data for worthy academic research, and the fruits of those models are promoted commercially.






15 March 2017: Data Mining in action – March 2017 – A Tory Strategy – Petition Against a Second Scottish Independence Referendum

A petition stating; “We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost.

As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely.

The majority of Scottish voters wish to remain in the British union, despite Nicola Sturgeon’s latest demands for a Scottish referendum, according to the latest polling from YouGov.”

The petition was clearly a “data mining ploy” prepared and added to the internet by the Tory media team.

The tactic worked since it succeeded in raising the public profile of the possibility of another Independence referendum, which (at the time) had not been given mention by anyone other than the Tory Party.






Use of Gathered Data – Analysis of Petition Outcome

Information was sourced from official lists and records providing numbers of acceptable signatories by Scottish Constituency.

Electorate totals were included and a percentage signatory total was established for each constituency.

From that the mean figure of 3.75% was used to forward project the outcome of an Independence referendum, should one be held after Brexit.

The figures suggested that from an electorate of 4,021,203 the outcome of another referendum would result in a: 48.00% “Yes” vote in favour of independence with 52.00% preferring to remain with the Union.

The information would be best used to forward plan strategy.

Edinburgh, Aberdeen, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire recorded higher than average figures favouring remaining with the Union.

Others appear to be less fixed.






The 2017 General Election Forecast

The General Election in Scotland will be a re-run of the 2014 referendum as such the landslide victory achieved by the SNP in the last GE cannot realistically be achieved.

The analysis suggests 25 seats might change hands with the Tory Party being the main benefactor:

SNP activists will need to get out in force in the under-noted constituencies otherwise they could be lost.





This group of seats are marginals – Risk decreases as the % number drops:

71749: Edinburgh West, Michelle Thomson MP : 4388-6.12%

69982: East Renfrewshire, Kirsten Oswald MP: 4241-6.06%

66966: East Dunbartonshire, John Nicolson MP: 3977-5.94%

65846: Edinburgh South, Ian Murray MP: 3579-5.44% (Labour)

73445: West Aberdn, Stuart Blair Donaldson MP: 3961-5.40%

80978: Edinburgh North & Leith, Deidre Brock MP: 4280-5.29%

66208: Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Gavin Newlands MP: 3158-4.77%

68875: Argyll & Bute, Brendan O’Hara MP: 3277-4.75%

62003: North East Fife, Stephen Gethins MP: 2937-4.74%

67236: Stirling, Steven Paterson MP: 3175-4.72%

77379: Ochil & S. Perthshire, Ms Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh MP: 3645-4.71%

79393: Gordon, Rt Hon Alex Salmond MP: 3711-4.68%

68056: Aberdeen South, Callum McCaig MP: 3618-4.65%

79481: East Lothian, George Kerevan MP: 3676-4.63%

72178: Edinburgh South West, Joanna Cherry QC: 3283-4.55% )

72447: Perth & North Perthshire, Pete Wishart MP: 3033-4.19%

71685: Moray, Rt Hon Angus Robertson MP: 2995-4.18%

78037: Lanark & Hamilton East, Angela Crawley MP: 3272-4.19%

68483: Dumfries, Clydesdale, Rt Hon David Mundell MP:2816-4.11%

74179: Berwickshire, Roxburgh, Selkirk: Calum Kerr MP: 3026-4.08%

86955: Linlithgow, East Falkirk, Martyn Day MP:3570-4.11%

68609: Banff & Buchan, Dr Eilidh Whiteford MP: 2772-4.04%

73445: W. Abdn & Kincardine, Stuart Blair Donaldson MP: 3961-5.40%

71685: Moray, Rt Hon Angus Robertson MP: 2995-4.18%

68056: Aberdeen South, Callum McCaig MP: 3618-4.65%